NTSB cites pilot’s ‘expectation bias’ in grounding of bulker

(WASHINGTON) — On Jan. 8, 2025, at 1813 local time, the dry bulk carrier Algoma Verity was transiting upbound on the Delaware River near Philadelphia, Pa., when it ran aground outside the channel. The vessel repositioned and continued its upbound transit, outside the channel, until it grounded again at 1828.

Algoma Verity was refloated three days later. No pollution or injuries were reported. Damage to the vessel was estimated at $6.6 million.​

​The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) determined that the probable cause of the grounding and subsequent re-grounding was the pilot maneuvering the vessel outside the channel into shallow water, likely due to expectation bias that the current and the vessel’s maneuvering characteristics would have more impact on the bulker’s movement.​

Vessel positions leading up to the first grounding of Algoma Verity. NTSB graphic

Expectation bias occurs when a person responds in a way that is consistent with what they expect rather than what is actually occurring. Methods to counteract expectation bias include training that reinforces active questioning of factors in the operational environment, recognizing conflicting cues, and clear, unambiguous communication.​These practices are also components of effective bridge resource management.

Good bridge resource management is an essential defense against human error. A critical element of bridge resource management is effective communication between the bridge watch standers, the master, and the pilot. When a pilot and bridge team clearly and openly share necessary information, both before and throughout a maneuver or planned task, they establish a shared mental model that increases collective situational awareness. Unexpected actions or deviations from the plan should be discussed between the crew and pilot to ensure a mutual understanding of the situation and prevent unrecoverable errors.

Click here to read the complete report.

– National Transportation Safety Board

By Professional Mariner Staff