Shipping activity through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has fallen by more than 50 percent in recent months as Houthi rebels continue to attack commercial ships in response to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Many shipping lines have abandoned the region altogether.
The rebels, who are based in Yemen, attacked at least 53 ships since last fall, according to the U.S. Maritime Administration (MarAd). Two U.S.-flagged ships, Maersk Detroit and Maersk Chesapeake, came under attack in January despite having a U.S. Navy escort.
According to International Monetary Fund data, the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal has diminished from about 75 a day at the end of 2023 to about 25 to 35 in April and May. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the south has seen a similar reduction. Tonnage traveling through the two areas has dropped to about a sixth of what it was last year. Many ships are rerouting around the Horn of Africa, adding weeks to some itineraries.
The ripple effects could mean price increases for commodities, spikes in insurance rates for shipping companies and layoffs for Israeli and Egyptian port workers. For mariners, the impact is the fear and anxiety of seeing a familiar waterway — through which 30 percent of international ships crossed — turn into a warzone where they are targets.
“We’ve never seen a situation like this in hundreds of years,” Adam Vokac, president of the Marine Engineers’ Beneficial Association, said in an interview with Professional Mariner. Although Merchant Marine vessels were targeted during World War II, he notes those ships were part of the war effort.
“These are just commercial guys,” Vokac said. “It’s like the guy driving the bus down the street getting shot. It’s a totally different situation that I’ve never seen before.”
The Houthis are a militant group in Yemen thought to be backed by Iran. They operate from an area near the southern tip of the Red Sea and are armed with weapons that include drones and missiles. From a base on land, they struck ships hundreds of miles from the shore. In November, the Houthis landed via helicopter on a British-owned cargo ship and seized it. They are still holding its crew captive.
In January, a tanker resistered in the Marshall Islands caught fire after being hit with a missile, and in February, Houthis struck a Belize-flagged cargo ship. Its crew was rescued by another vessel before it sunk. And at least least three mariners died in early March when an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) struck the Barbados-flagged M/V True Confidence in the Gulf of Aden, according to U.S. Central Command. Four other mariners on board were hurt, three seriously.
“This is the fifth ASBM fired by Houthis in the last two days,” U.S. Central Command said March 6 in a press statement after the fatal missile attack. “Two of these ASBMs impacted two shipping vessels — M/V MSC Sky II and M/V True Confidence — and one ASBM was shot down by USS Carney (DDG 64).”
The Houthis have declared their intent to bomb American, British and Israeli vessels in retaliation for the Israeli offensive in Gaza. Most of the ships targeted can be traced to those countries by flag or ownership, but “there have been several instances where they’ve gotten that wrong,” Cameron Naron, director of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Office of Maritime Security, told Professional Mariner.
In April, the MarAd recommended U.S.-flagged ships turn off their automatic identification systems to better avoid detection when traveling through the Red Sea and nearby waterways. Even that step is no guarantee ships will avoid rebel attacks.
“There have been vessels with AIS off that have been hit; there have been vessels with AIS on, obviously, that have not been hit,” Naron said. “But there is a very high correlation between vessels being hit, generally [and] having AIS on.”
Nearly all U.S. vessels have since rerouted, according to Vokac. This includes U.S. operator Maersk Line Limited, which stopped transiting the region after its ships were attacked early this year. “Other than a very few specific cases, there are no American ships sailing through that zone anymore.” The area is now mostly used by Russian and Chinese vessels.
The influx of traffic around African coastlines lead the United Nations and other authorities to issue warnings that those ships could be targeted by a resurgence of Somali pirates, who launched six attacks in the first quarter of 2024.
But the Houthi threat is fundamentally different from pirates and others that mariners have faced, Naron said. “What the Houthis are doing are kinetic attacks, meaning missiles, drones. What Somali pirates are doing is physically boarding vessels.” The pirates want to ransom crew and ships. The Houthis want to destroy them.
Even for a marine sector threatened by Somali pirates, the Houthis are a cause for alarm. “Somali pirates, they have little skiffs and machine guns and maybe a few RPGs,” Vokac said. “That was a little bit scary. But this is like the military; they have cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones.” •